Report: Physician Shortfall Could be up to 86K in 12 Years

May 2, 2024

The physician shortage may be worse than first anticipated, according to projections released in March by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC). 

AAMC and GlobalData Plc. predict a shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036 in their new report - "The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections from 2021 to 2036." 

“Given the new findings, it is clear that both sustained and increased investments in training new physicians are critical to mitigating projected shortfalls of doctors needed to meet the healthcare needs of our country,” said David J. Skorton, MD, AAMC president and CEO. “Most importantly, if additional investments critical to increasing the supply of physicians fail to materialize, projected shortfalls of doctors will be larger than presented in this latest report.” 

Additional findings in the report include: 

• Demographics — specifically, population growth and aging — continue to be the primary drivers for increasing the need for more physicians to meet the healthcare needs of tomorrow. 

• A large portion of the physician workforce is nearing the traditional retirement age.  

• In addition, the AAMC examined and found that if communities underserved by the nation’s healthcare system could obtain care at the same rate as populations with better access to care, the nation would have needed approximately 202,800 more physicians as of 2021.